000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
06N90W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to 06N120W to
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 01N to 05N between 80W and 85W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted from 01N to
04N between 82W and 86W, from 02N to 07N between 86W and 105W 
and from 05N to 09N between 110W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure located near 
27N133W southeastward toward Socorro Island. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore
waters. Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft in open waters, with moderate
SW swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist off
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore 
waters through early Sun. High pressure building across the 
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico behind a 
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh 
to strong gap winds and building seas across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun night. Data this morning
indicate the possibility of minimal gale-force winds in the 
Tehuantepec region, and a gale warning may be issue with the next
forecast package. A NW swell event will propagate across the 
waters north of Punta Eugenia late Sun night into Mon with 
building seas of 8 to 10 ft late on Mon. Expect increasing S to 
SW winds and building seas in the northern Gulf of California Mon
and Mon night ahead of a frontal trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell dominate the forecast area. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle winds across the region through the upcoming weekend. Expect
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. Also,
areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist over the offshore
waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters,
particularly N of 15N and W of 110W, anchored by 1020 mb high 
pressure situated near 27N133W. A weakening stationary front 
remains near 30N140W. Gentle to moderate to southerly winds and 
seas of 5 to 6 ft are ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate 
trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. 
Mainly gentle breezes are evident over the remainder of the area.
Combined seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. 

For the forecast, the stationary front near 30N140W will 
dissipate through Sat. The ridge will continue to dominate the 
northern forecast waters north of 20N through Sat, maintaining
moderate trade winds farther south. The ridge will shift northward
as a reinforcing cold front moves into the region. The front 
will stall and dissipate through Mon north of 28N and west of 
125W. Strong high pressure will build into the region from the 
northwest over the weekend and produce fresh to strong N to NE 
winds and increasing N swell to the north of 25N by late Sun, and
north of 20N by late Mon.

$$
GR