181 
AXPZ20 KNHC 272123
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N95W to 05N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N115W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection can be found from 02N to 05N between 80W and 92W, from
02N to 04N between 100W and 103W, and from 03N to 06N between 
117W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1024 mb located well N of the forecast area
dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing gentle
to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light and variable 
winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas generally in
the 1 to 2 ft range, except 3 to 4 ft near to the entrance of 
the Gulf. Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell prevail. Areas of 
smoke from agricultural fires may persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the relatively weak pressure pattern will support
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Mexican offshore waters
through early Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind
a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico, will support 
fresh to strong gap winds and building seas across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun night. A NW swell event will 
propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Sun night 
into Mon, with building seas of 8 to 10 ft late on Mon. Expect 
increasing S to SW winds and building seas in the northern Gulf 
of California Mon and Mon night ahead of a frontal trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate combined seas in SW
swell dominate the region. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle winds across the region through the upcoming weekend, except
for gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama
tonight. Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S 
to SW swell. Also, areas of smoke from agricultural fires may persist
over the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure located N of the area has a ridge extending across
the northern forecast waters, covering mainly the waters N of 
15N and W of 110W. A stationary front remains near 30N140W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are ahead
of the front over the far NW corner of the forecast region. Gentle
to moderate trades are noted along the southertn periphery of 
the ridge. Mainly gentle breezes are evident over the remainder 
of the area. Combined seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW 
and SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the northern
forecast waters. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle
to moderate winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft. The stationary
front located near 30N140W will dissipate through Fri. Strong high
pressure will build into the region from the northwest over the 
weekend and produce fresh to strong N to NE winds and increasing 
N swell to the north of 25N by late Sun, and north of 20N by late
Mon.

$$
GR