000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251545
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 06N95W to 06.5N108W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06.5N108W to 04N129W to beyond 03.5N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06.5N between
84W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted S of 02S between 85W and 89W, and from 03N to 10N between 
104W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight satellite derived data indicated mostly moderate NW 
winds persist off Baja California, although winds to near 20 kt 
may be accelerating near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Combined 
seas remain 5 to 8 ft, except 8 to 9 ft across the far NW waters
to the NW of Guadalupe Island. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds and slight seas are noted over the Gulf of California and 
off southern Mexico. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires 
persist off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore 
Baja California Norte will gradually diminish through Fri as low 
pressure over the Colorado River Valley weakens and moves east. 
Fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
pulse this afternoon while moderate W gaps winds will persist 
across portions of central and southern Gulf through Wed morning.
Large NW swell impacting the outer waters of Baja California 
Norte will subside through tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and slight to moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere 
through late week. Expect areas of smoke off southern Mexico 
today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate combined seas in 
SW swell dominate the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure
gradient will support light to gentle breezes across the region 
through late week. Expect slight to moderate combined seas 
primarily in S to SW swell. Also, areas of smoke from
agricultural fires may persist over the offshore waters. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging to the north of the area is weakening and shifting
farther north ahead of a cold front extending into the central 
Hawaiian Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate trade 
winds north of 05N and west of 120W. Mainly gentle breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in northerly 
swell north of 24N and east of 128W and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the large NW swell will persist into tonight 
for waters north of 26N and east of 125W, then diminish to less 
than 8 ft Wed. Moderate trade winds will persist from 05N to 20N 
and west of 125W through the remainder of the week. The cold 
front will reach 30N140W on Wed, briefly producing S winds near 
20 kt and seas around 7 ft, before the front stalls along 
137W-138W and gradually dissipates through Fri.

$$
Stripling