000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210725
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N107W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N108W to 06N135W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 07N between 88W and 102W and from 03N to 
11N between 114W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1031 mb high pressure is centered near 35N129W, with a surface 
ridge extending southeastward to offshore southern Mexico. Mainly
moderate NW winds are occurring off the coast of Baja California
and in the Gulf of California. Seas are 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja
California Norte, 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Sur, and 3
to 5 ft in the Gulf of California. Farther S, mainly gentle 
breezes and moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere in the 
open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, the interaction between high pressure off 
California and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. and 
northwest Mexico will support moderate to local fresh NW winds 
off Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas 
in this area will be 7 to 9 ft with NW swell. Winds and seas will
diminish then through Sat night as the high pressure weakens and
shifts westward. Looking ahead, a new round of large NW swell is
expected to move into the waters off Baja California north of 
Punta Eugenia Sun and persist through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate gap
winds in the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Light to gentle 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region into the middle of next week. 
Expect slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW 
swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1031 mb high pressure 
centered near 35N129W and extends southeastward to southern
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 05N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell
north of 05N and west of 115W, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific east of
125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high pressure 
north of the area weakens and shifts westward. Large NW swell
impacting waters N of 25N and E of 125W will diminish through Fri
night then increase again Sat into Sun night. High pressure will
continue to shift W and weaken further Sun into early next week,
leading to a continued most decrease in trades W of 125W. Seas 
will also fall below 8 ft late Sun.

$$
KONARIK