000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202054
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N110W to 07N130W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident within 120 nm of the trough and ITCZ between 85W and 
95W, and from 115W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1032 mb high pressure is centered near 36N128W, with a surface 
ridge extending southeastward to offshore of southern Mexico. 
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
locally fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California north of
Cabo San Lazaro, with combined seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell.
Light to gentle breezes and moderate combined seas are noted
elsewhere in the open waters off southern Mexico. Light breezes
and slight seas are noted in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the interaction between high pressure off California
and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico
will support moderate to fresh NW winds tonight off much of Baja
California Norte. Combined seas in this area will be 7 to 10 ft
with NW swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the
high pressure weakens and shifts westward. Looking ahead, a new 
round of large NW swell is expected to move into the waters off 
Baja California north of Punta Eugenia late Sat through Sun 
night, and persist through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to 
fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama 
extending to southeast of the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft 
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, and mostly 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to
gentle breezes across the region through early next week. Expect
slight to moderate combined seas primarily in S to SW swell. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure 
centered near 36N128W and extends southeastward to southern
Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 05N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
evident elsewhere. Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell
north of 05N and east of 110W, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure north of the area shifts northward. Large NW swell 
impacting the waters E of 130W will diminish through Sat before 
briefly increasing again Sat through Sun. High pressure will then
shift westward late Sat through Mon and lead to a modest 
decrease in trade winds west of 125W, with seas gradually 
subsiding to 7-8 ft by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish 
further across the basin through Mon.

$$
Christensen