000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200319
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 03.5N80W to 07N92W to 
04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 05N125W to beyond 
02N125W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
00N to 07.5N between 84W and 98W, and from 02.5N to 08N between 
104W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1028 mb high pressure is centered near 36N129W, with a surface 
ridge extending to offshore Cabo Corrientes near. This ridge has
built across the region today in the wake of the dissipated 
front, and is producing fresh to strong NW winds off Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW 
swell prevail across the near shore waters N of San Lazaro, and
are peaking at 12 to 13 ft farther offshore of Baja Norte. Light
breezes and slight seas are evident over the Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted 
elsewhere north of 20N. Light breezes and moderate combined seas 
in a mix of NW and SW swell persist off southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure northwest of the area will 
support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California
north of Cabo San Lazaro through early Thu. Seas are peaking at
12-13 ft currently offshore Baja Norte and will begin to slowly
subside tonight. The high pressure will drift westward and 
slowly weaken late Thu through Sun leading to a dimishing trend 
in winds and seas across the regional waters. Looking ahead, a 
new round of large NW swell is expected to move into the waters 
off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia late Sat through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting occasionally
moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This
pressure pattern is also supporting moderate northerly winds 
over the Gulf of Panama extending to east of the Azuero 
Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined 
seas are 4 to 6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, and mostly
3 to 4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
occasionally strong gap winds pulses into Thu across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua. Winds in the Gulf of Panama
will briefly pulse to fresh tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 36N129W extending SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north 
of 06N and west of 118W. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident 
elsewhere. Combined seas are 8 to 13 ft in NW to N swell north 
of 25N and east of 128W, 6 to 9 ft elsewhere west of 115W, and 4
to 6 ft primarily in SW swell over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure weakens north of the area. NW swell in excess of 8 ft 
moving into the waters north of 25N tonight will spread southward
through Thu, with highest seas occurring east of 130W. For late 
Fri through Sun, high pressure will shift westward and lead to a 
modest decrease in trade winds west of 125W, with seas gradually 
subsiding to 7-8 ft by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish 
across the basin through Mon.

$$
Stripling