000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190316
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N74W to 04N84W to 04N93W to 
03N109W. The ITCZ extends from 03N110W to 01.5N120W, and then 
again from 01.5N126W to beyond 00.5N140W. Another ITCZ segment 
is farther south, extending from 01S103W to beyond 03.4S115W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N
to 07N between 84W and 97W, and S of 01S between 89W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW winds off the coast of Baja California have increased this
evening and are fresh to locally strong N of Punta Eugenia, and
moderate to fresh elsewhere to the S and SW. This is ahead of a 
dissipating cold front extending from southern California to near
31.5N130W, which has been disrupting the normal subtropical 
ridge over the region. Recent buoy reports and altimeter data 
show seas offshore Baja Norte and along 30N have recently built 
to 9 ft, and are expected to build overnight to 11 ft. Seas are 5
to 8 ft elsewhere off Baja California south of 28N. Gentle to
moderate breezes persist elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters further southeast, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in open 
waters with a mix of NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure will build in modestly across
the region behind the dissipating cold front off California, 
and support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro through late Thu. Combined 
seas are expected to peak near 11 ft with NW swell offshore Baja 
Norte by Wed morning. The front will dissipate through late Wed,
and the high pressure will weaken and drift northwest Fri 
through Sat leading to a dimishing trend in winds and seas across
the regional waters. Looking ahead, a new round of large NW 
swell will move into the waters off Baja California north of 
Punta Eugenia starting late Sat. Farther south, fresh to strong 
gap winds and rough seas are expected to return to the 
Tehuantepec region by Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The base of an upper level trough across central America is 
supporting small clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 
about 180 nm southwest of Costa Rica. High pressure north of the
area is supporting moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo, and moderate northerly over the Gulf of Panama just
east of the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo, and mostly 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will 
support fresh to occasionally strong gap winds pulses through mid
week across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua. 
Moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh 
tonight and Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to locally 
fresh NE trade winds from 06N to 24N west of 120W, between a 
trough in the deep tropics along 123W-124W and the subtropical 
ridge north of 20N. Recent altimeter satellite data confirmed 
combined seas in this area are 7 to 8 ft mixed NE and NW swell. 
Thunderstorms near the surface trough have diminished 
significantly in recent hours, and are isolated between 05N and
07.5N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere to the 
north, where seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through mid week as high 
pressure weakens north of the area. New longer period NW swell 
in excess of 8 ft will move into the waters north of 20N through
Wed, with highest seas reaching 12 ft along 30N120W. For Thu 
through Sat, combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist north of 25N
and east of 125W to near the Baja California coast. Seas 
associated with fresh trade winds in NW swell will persist from 
05N to 20N west of 125W.

$$
Stripling