000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172042
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 02N100W. A segment of 
the ITCZ continues from 02N100W to 05N115W. Another segment
extends from 05N135W to west of 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 85W and 95W, and 
from 07N to 09N between 115W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale-force event.

A scatterometer satellite pass from late in the morning verified
winds to gale force were ongoing at that time, but just near the
coastline. Winds have been diminishing overall across Tehuantepec
as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward.
Near-gale force winds are likely ongoing currently, but will
diminish further through late afternoon. Wave heights will
gradually subside through the evening accordingly. 

Farther north, a broad surface ridge extends from high pressure 
1029 mb high pressure centered near 35N150W southeastward toward 
the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data 
and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh NW winds winds 
off Baja California, between the ridge and lower pressure over 
north- central Mexico. The ship observations and altimeter 
satellite data also show combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in this same
area. 

Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. 
Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters. 

For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern Pacific
will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja
California north of Cabo San Lazaro through late Thu, with 
combined seas reaching as 10 ft due in part to NW swell. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east winds prevail across the waters of the 
Gulf of Papagayo region, with these winds are 4-6 ft. Moderate N
to NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to occasionally strong gap winds pulses through mid week 
across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh Tue and 
Wed nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and 
moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirm fresh to strong 
trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 125W, between a trough in the
deep tropics near 120W and the subtropical ridge north of 20N. 
Recent altimeter satellite data confirmed combined seas in this 
area are 7 to 9 ft, likely with a component of NW swell. 
Scattered thunderstorms are active near the surface trough, which
extends from 04N to 10N along 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will diminish through mid week as high pressure weakens
north of the area. A new group of longer period NW swell in
excess of 8 ft will move into the waters north of 20N Tue and 
Wed, with highest seas reaching 10 ft near Guadalupe Island. For
Thu through Sat, combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist north of
25N and east of 125W to near the Baja California coast. Seas
associated with fresh trade winds mixed with primarily NW swell
will persist from 05N to 20N west of 125W.

$$
Christensen