000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, behind a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight and through late Mon night. The high will support strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sun night through Mon, with winds briefly increasing to gale- force early Mon morning through late morning. This will be a short- lived gale event as the high pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward allowing winds to diminish Mon afternoon. Seas are expected to peak to near 11 ft Mon morning before subsiding to 8 ft during Mon afternoon and to below 8 ft early Mon night. Please refer to latest High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10.5N74.5W southwestward to low pres 1010 mb near 06N86W to 00.5N100W. ITCZ extends from 01.5S103W to 00.5S124W to 00N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 06N117W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast S of 06N, S of 06.5N between 82W and 97W, and from 04.5N to 10.5N W of 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale-force event. A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure NW of the area to SW of Cabo Corrientes along 108W. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the full length of Baja California waters and fresh to locally strong winds near the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas. Seas offshore Baja California remain 5-6 ft in NW swell N of 20N , and 7-8 ft along the coast near Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec region to near Acapulco, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds prevail along with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun night, with brief gale-force winds expected early Mon morning through late Mon morning. Gentle S to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will briefly become fresh S to SW winds Mon night. NW to N winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia starting Mon night, becoming fresh to strong Wed and Wed night as the high pressure shifts eastward, then diminish to fresh speeds Thu and Thu night. New N swell will build across the Baja waters Mon night through Tue then be reinforced region wide Tue night through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds prevail across the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extend offshore to 88W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Moderate N to NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama and extend downstream of the Gulf to 05N. Seas are 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist N of the region through Sun night, then strengthen modestly MOn night through Thu. This pattern will produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to strong at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh at night Tue and Wed. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high pressure is N of the area near 33N129W extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of about 108W. Recent ASCAT data over this area showed moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds to the S of 20N. Seas with these winds are in the 5-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds are present south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters over the next several days, strengthening modestly Tue and Wed. The associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the west-central waters. An elongated zone of seas 8 to 9 ft in mixed N and E swell is expected to develop W of 114W from 08N to 16N starting tonight through Sun night, where trade winds will freshen, then increasing to 8-10 ft Mon and subsiding on Tue. A weakening cold front will push southward across the far northern waters Tue and Tue night. New NW swell will follow the front reaching south of 30N and to near 26N by late Tue night. Seas of 8-9 ft are expected with this NW swell. $$ Stripling