000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160321 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build in behind a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight and through late Mon night. This will support strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Mon, with winds briefly increasing to gale-force early Mon morning through late morning. This will be a short-lived gale event as the high pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward allowing for the winds to diminish to strong speeds on Mon afternoon. Seas are expected to peak to about 11 ft Mon morning before subsiding to 8 ft during Mon afternoon and to below 8 ft Mon night. Please refer to latest High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N74W southwestward to 05.5N89W to 07.5N107W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 02N E of 84W, from 07N to 02S between 84W and 91.5W, and S of 02S between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of ITCZ W of 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale-force event. A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure NW of the area to SW of Cabo Corrientes along 108W. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the full length of Baja California waters and fresh to locally strong winds near the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas. Seas offshore Baja California have subsided to 5-6 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia and to 5-7 ft south of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec region to near Acapulco, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds prevail along with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun night, with brief gale-force winds expected Mon morning. NW swell across the Baja offshore waters will continue to subside through tonight. Gentle S to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will briefly become fresh S to SW winds Mon night. NW to N winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia starting Mon night, becoming fresh to strong Wed and Wed night as the high pressure shifts eastward. These winds will be at mostly fresh speeds Thu and Thu night, with localized strong winds near Punta Eugenia. New N swell will build across the Baja waters Mon night through Tue then be reinforced region wide Tue night through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast to east winds prevail across the nearshore waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, and well offshore W of 90W. Seas with these winds are 4-5 ft. Moderate N to NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama and extend downstream of the Gulf from 04N to 07N between 79W-81W. Seas are 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist across the region to the N through Sun night. This pattern will produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to strong at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. The moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh late tonight and again at night Tue and Wed. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure is N of the area near 34N130W extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of about 110W. Afternoon ASCAT data over this area showed gentle to moderate NE to E winds. Seas with these winds are in the 5-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds are present south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters over the next several days. The associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the west-central waters. An elongated zone of seas 8 to 9 ft in mixed N and E swell is expected to develop W of 114W from 08N to 16N starting late tonight through Sun night, where trade winds will freshen, then increasing to 8-10 ft Mon and subsiding on Tue. A weakening cold front will push southward across the far northern waters Tue and Tue night. New NW swell will follow the front reaching south of 30N and to near 26N by late Tue night. Seas of 8-9 ft are expected with this NW swell. $$ Stripling