000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to 
05.5N82W to 10N108W, where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ then 
continues southwestward to 06N119W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 
80W and 95W, and S of 01S between 86W and 105W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 95W and 
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure NW of the area 
to SW of Cabo Corrientes along 108W. The associated pressure 
gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds 
across the full length of Baja California waters extending 
southward to offshore Cabo Corrientes and adjacent area. 
Localized areas of strong winds are likely near shore of Cabo San
Lucas and along the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro 
Cardenas. Seas offshore Baja California have subsided to 6-9 ft 
in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia and to 5-8 ft south of Punta 
Eugenia. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec region to near Acapulco,
gentle to moderate west to northwest winds prevail along with 
seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the NW swell across the Baja offshore waters 
will continue to subside through Sat night. Gentle S to SW winds
over the northern Gulf of California will briefly become fresh S
to SW winds Mon night. NW to N winds are expected to increase to
fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia starting Mon night, becoming
fresh to strong Wed and Wed night as the high pressure shifts 
eastward. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is 
expected to begin Sun night with brief gale-force winds Mon 
morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region tonight, extending offshore to 88W, where seas 
are 5-7 ft. Fresh N to NE winds are across the Gulf of Panama 
and extend south to near 06N, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist
across the region to the N through Sun night. This pattern will 
produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to 
strong at night and into the early morning hours through Wed 
night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through
Sat night, and will return again Tue night and Wed night.  
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in 
SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N140W
tonight and extends a ridge SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, 
Mexico. The ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of 
10N and west of about 110W. Overnight ASCAT data over this area 
showed gentle to moderate NE to E winds, with an area of fresh E 
winds located from 12N to 19N W of 130W. Seas within the area of
gentle to moderate winds are 5-7 ft, and seas within the area of
fresh winds are 6-8 ft in mixed N to NE swell. In the NE part of
the area, seas of 7-9 ft due to NW swell continue tonight N of 
18N and west of the Baja California Peninsula to 131W. Light to 
gentle winds are present south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern 
forecast waters over the next several days. The associated 
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over
the west-central waters. The NW swell over the NE part of the 
area will subside through Sat allowing for seas to fall below 8 
ft. An elongated zone of seas 8 to 9 ft in mixed N and E swell is
expected to develop W of 114W from 08N to 16N Sat night through 
Sun night, where trade winds will freshen, then increasing to 8 
to 10 ft Mon.

$$
Stripling