000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130322
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
04N80W to 04N92W. The ITCZ continues from 04N92W to 02N120W to 
02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
02N to 07N between 90W and 101W. Similar convective activity is
noted within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 101W and 109W, 
and from the Equator to 02N between 131W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across Baja California Norte, and extends
from 31N115W to near 24N120W. A ridge dominates the remainder of
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are observed N of Punta Eugenia in the wake of 
the front with seas of 9 to 11 ft based on altimeter data. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail between Cabo San Lucas
and Punta Eugenia while light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters except in the Tehuantepec 
region where northerly winds in the 20 to 25 kt are seen. Winds 
are on increase in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the 
cold front. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong winds offshore California
will continue to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia 
tonight into Thu, with seas likely reaching 12 or 13 ft near 
30N120W by Thu night. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to 
locally strong SW winds and building seas of 4 to 7 ft tonight 
into Thu ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the 
Tehuantepec region on Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early 
morning hours through Fri night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Then, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail during the 
upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Panama through at least Sat with seas of 3 to 5 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned a cold front extends from 31N115W to near
24N120W. High pressure behind the front dominates most of the
forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Fresh to strong Nw winds
and seas of 8 to 11 ft follow the front forecast to move across
the Gulf of California late tonight into Thu. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will follow the front 
bringing some increase in winds across the west-central waters 
over the next day or two. Long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the NE waters with seas of 8 to 11 dominating
the waters N of 25N between 116W and 130W by Fri morning. 

$$
GR