000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120922
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
05N80W to 06N90W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 
02N120W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 92W and 102W. Similar
convective activity is near 03N110W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is seen from 00N to 07N W of 130W. 

An area of numerous moderate to strong convection is observed south
of the Equator to about 05S between 125W and 136W associated with
a second ITCZ that is present in the southern hemisphere during 
March and April of each year.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to locally fresh NW winds between Cabo 
San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N 
of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere W of Baja California.
Satellite derived wind data also provide observations of fresh 
to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly N of 
15N between 94W and 95.5W where seas are 8 to 10 ft. These winds
continue to be enhanced by the nocturnal drainage flow across 
the Tehuantepec region roughly between 0600 and 1200 UTC. Light 
and variable winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas 
of 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder 
of Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range 
primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N95W through early
this afternoon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Then, mainly fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehunatepec region through 
tonight. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California will
begin to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia this 
morning, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft by Wed night into 
Thu, likely reaching 12 or 13 ft near 30N120W by Thu night. In 
the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds 
and building seas of 4 to 7 ft Wed tonight into Thu ahead of a 
weakening frontal boundary or frontal trough. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Fresh to locally strong N to
NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 
about 06N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4 to 6 
ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
morning hours through Thu night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the 
remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama 
at night and into the early morning hours through Thu night, with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Then, gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected through Sun. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N128W to 26N140W.
No deep convection is associated with the frontal boundary. The
most recent scatterometer satellite pass shows fresh to strong 
N to NE winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11
ft based on altimeter data. The scatterometer wind data also 
indicate fresh to locally strong NE to E winds winds from the 
ITCZ to about 12N and west of 129W where seas are in the 8 to 9 
ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast region. 

For the forecast, a strong high pressure follows the aforementioned
dissipating front and will bring some increase in winds across 
the west-central waters over the next day or two. A new frontal 
boundary will be over Baja California Norte this evening, and 
over the northern Gulf of California by Thu evening. Long period 
NW swell will begin to propagate across the NE waters today, with
seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night 
into Thu.

$$
GR