000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1555 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W
to 05N93W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N93W to 04N115W to beyond
140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection observed from 
02N to 15N and between 90W and 125W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from 02N to 06N and west of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The high pressure system over the subtropical Pacific remains
well to the northwest of Mexico, supporting mainly moderate
northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California.
Seas in the area described are 4-7 ft, with the highest occurring
near 30N120W. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1-4 ft
are found in the Gulf of California.

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue to affect the waters of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wave heights in this area are 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds, with higher gusts, are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N97W
during the overnight and early morning hours with seas building 
to 10 or 11 ft through Wed morning. Then, mainly fresh northerly
winds are expected through Wed night. Seas generated by strong 
winds offshore California will propagate across the waters N of 
Punta Eugenia on Wed morning, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft 
by Wed night into Thu. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to
locally strong SW winds and building seas of 4-7 ft Wed night 
into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal boundary or frontal trough.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW 
swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region,
spreading downward to 92W. Seas generated by these winds are 5-7
ft. Farther south, a recent scatterometer satellite pass captured mainly
fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama and south of the 
Azuero peninsula down to 03N. Seas in these waters are also 5-7
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE-E winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early 
morning hours through Wed night, with seas building to 7 or 8 
ft. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the 
remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the early 
morning hours through Wed night, with seas of 5-7 ft. Then, 
gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through at least 
through Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N133W to 27N140W and no
significant convection is associated with this feature. Fresh to
strong NE winds are following the frontal boundary, along with
seas of 8-10 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
strong high pressure system located well to the northwest of the
eastern tropical Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 25N and west of 110. Seas
in the area described are 5-8 ft with the highest seas within 90
nm of 10N and west of 127W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast
to weaken over the next few days as it moves southeastward. 
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the 
wake of the front, forecast to reach from 30N124W to 27N140W by 
Tue evening. The frontal boundary will be over Baja California 
Norte Wed evening, and over the northern Gulf of California by 
Thu evening. High pressure will follow the front bringing some 
increase in winds across the west-central waters by Wed night, 
particularly from 16N to 25N W of 134W. Long period NW swell 
event will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, with 
seas building to 10 or 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into
Thu.

$$
DELGADO