000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 04N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery from 05N to 08N between 85W and 95W. Similar convective activity is seen from 02N to 05N west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1024 mb located near 28N134W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with the exception of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle NW winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Similar wind speeds prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 14N where N winds in the 20 to 30 kt range and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen. For the forecast, strong northerly winds, with higher gusts, are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night and into the morning hours with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. These marine conditions will extend downwind of the Gulf to near 12N97W over the next 48 hours. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft by Wed night into Thu. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds Wed night into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal boundary. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to near 88W, and fresh to locally strong N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama extending southward to about 06N. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front has reached the NW corner of the forecast region, and extends from 30N137W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas follow the front. E of the front, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N134W, and this system dominates mainly the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The most recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong NE-E winds from the ITCZ to about 10N and west of 130W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the ITCZ with light to gentle winds S of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken as the cold front moves southward across the north waters while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the wake of the front, forecast to reach from 30N128W TO 27N140W by Tue evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the west-central waters through the work-week. A NW swell event will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu. $$ GR