000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092033
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2025 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
08N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N90W to 04N105W to 05N120W to
05N139W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 
09N and between 84W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned well to the west of NW
Mexico. Divergence aloft is producing a cluster of showers and
isolated thunderstorms affecting the Revillagigedo Islands and
nearby waters. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 
4-6 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Meanwhile, light to gentle northerly winds are noted in the 
northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate northerly 
breezes are prevalent in the central and southern portions of the
basin. Seas in these waters are 1-2 ft in the northern and 
central Gulf waters and 2-4 ft in the southern waters.

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are observed in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, extending southward to 12N. The wave heights in the
area described are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail in the remaining offshore waters of 
Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec at night and into the morning hours, 
diminishing in the afternoons through Wed night. Wind speeds to 
near gale-force are forecast late at night and early in the 
mornings Mon and Tue, with winds possibly briefly gusting to 
gale-force. Seas will exceed 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, a 
storm system off SW California will produce a NW swell that will 
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night, 
with seas building to 12 ft by Wed night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago captured
fresh to locally strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and
south of the Azuero peninsula, extending southward to 04N. These
winds have decreased to primarily moderate this afternoon. Seas
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther north, moderate to fresh
easterly winds continue to affect the waters of the Gulf of
Papagayo and nearshore Nicaragua. Seas in the area described are
4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
afternoon hours through most of the upcoming week. Fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama and south of the Azuero peninsula at night and into the 
early afternoons through Tue, then mainly at fresh speeds 
afterward. Seas will peak near 7 ft during the strongest winds. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This
activity is likely to continue through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system is anchored over the northern
waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show moderate to locally strong NE-E winds from
the ITCZ to 25N and west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly trade winds 
will change little through Tue. The 6-8 ft seas will subside a 
little through Mon, then build back up to a peak of 9 ft Tue as 
the trade winds increase to fresh to locally strong primarily 
from 15N to 13N and W of 120W. Looking ahead, a cold front will 
approach 30N140W early Mon and sink SSE as it weakens through 
mid-week. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in behind the 
front later on Mon and through mid-week. A large set of NW swell
inducing seas of 8-11 ft will begin to intrude into the far 
NW waters early on Mon. By mid- week, another set of NW swell 
will propagate through the NE waters creating seas to 12 ft by 
late in the week. Fresh to strong NW winds will be just N of 30N
and E of 125W at that time.

$$
DELGADO