000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2105 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N77W to 04N92W 
to 03N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N107W to 03N123W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 
10N and east of 90W. Similar convection is present from 01N to 
11N and between 115W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge continues positioned well to the west of
Baja California. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured 
fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the offshore
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the remaining offshore waters 
of Baja California.

Light to locally moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate
seas are present in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remaining 
offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the morning hours, diminishing
in the afternoons, through Thu. Wind speeds to near gale force 
are forecast for Mon night and may briefly reach gale force,
especially in gusts, Tue night. Seas will exceed 8 ft with these
winds. Elsewhere, a storm system off SW California will produce 
a NW swell that will reach the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte Tue night, with seas building to 11 ft by Wed night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The ash plume associated with the Fuego volcano of Guatemala is
not reaching the Pacific coast at this time. Farther southeast,
the easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region have diminished
to moderate, but these winds will increase again tonight to fresh
to strong force. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.

Latest scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong easterly
winds south of Panama, especially from 04N to 07N and between 80W
and 85W. These winds are about 5 knots higher than originally
expected, suggesting a tighter pressure gradient between high
pressure to the north and lower pressures in the deep tropics.
The wave heights in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds in the Gulf
of Papagayo will pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds at 
night and into the early afternoons through most of the upcoming
week. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected in the Gulf of
Panama and south of the Azuero peninsula at night and into the
early afternoons through Tue. Seas in both regions will build up
to 7 ft during the strongest winds. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This activity is likely to
continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system continues anchored near 27N128W. A
weak stationary front is draped across the northernmost waters,
extending from 30N129W to 28N138W. No significant winds or seas 
are associated with this feature. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are
confined to the tropical latitudes, especially from 05N to 22N
and west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will 
prevail through most of the forecast period. The 8-10 ft seas
will subside over the next few days, but seas to 8 ft will
continue west of 130W through the forecast period. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will approach 30N140W early Mon and slide 
southeastward as it weakens. A large set of NW swell inducing 
seas of 8-10 ft will begin to intrude into the far northwest 
waters early on Mon. By midweek, another set of NW swell will
enter the NE waters with seas to 12 ft by late next week.

$$
DELGADO