000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 06N77W to 03N92W to
03N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N107W to 03N125W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
found from 02N to 10N and east of 97W. Similar convection is
noted from 03N to 09N and between 113W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The 1024 mb high pressure system remains anchored well to the
west of the Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja
California Norte, while primarily moderate northerly winds are
evident in the Baja California Sur waters. Seas in the area
described are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas 
of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the Gulf of California.

Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds are affecting the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, resulting in seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remaining 
offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the morning hours, diminishing
in the afternoons through the forecast period. Wind speeds to 
gale-force are possible on Tue night and are expected to reach 
to near gale on Mon night. Seas will exceed 8 ft with these 
winds. Elsewhere, mainly moderate northwest to north winds and 
moderate seas will remain over the offshore waters of Baja 
California through the weekend and into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fuego volcano in Guatemala near 14.5N90.9W has produced several 
moderate emissions overnight, sending a plume of ash southward 
that reaches into the Pacific waters. Latest satellite imagery 
depict a line of ash clouds moving SSW, extending into the 
offshore waters of Guatemala to 13.5N and between 90W and 92W. 
Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic 
ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the 
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect the Gulf
of Papagayo region and the nearshore waters of Nicaragua. These
winds extends westward to 92W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft.
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted north of 03N and between
78W and 85W, including the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds in the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon. These 
winds will pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds at night and 
into the early afternoons through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds 
will continue elsewhere along with a moderate long-period 
southerly swell, except in the Gulf of Panama where fresh 
northerly winds are expected through Tue night. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This activity is 
likely to continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned in the northern waters
of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds south of 24N to the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas in
these waters are 8-10 ft, with the highest wave heights 
occurring near 07N129W. A cold front is approaching the northern 
waters but there are no significant winds or seas associated with
this feature. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are noted 
south of the surface trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 6-8 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NE-E trade winds will 
change little through the weekend, then begin to diminish in 
coverage some starting Mon. The northerly swell will gradually 
decay through the weekend allowing for the aforementioned 8-10 ft
seas to subside to less than 8 ft late Sun night into early on 
Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach 30N140W early Mon
and slide eastward as it weakens. A large set of northwest swell
inducing seas of 8-10 ft will begin to intrude into the far 
northwest waters early on Mon. 

$$
DELGADO