000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia southwestward to 
the coast at 07N78W and continues to 08N87W to 03N98W to 
low pressure near 03N105W 1007 mb and to 03N112W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicates that is transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 05N127W to 04N135W and to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 119W-121W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ 
between 121W-128W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 
03N to 08N between 82W-86W, and also within 120 NM north of the 
ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge continues well to the west of the Mexican
offshore waters. Moderate northwest to north winds are offshore 
Baja California, except for mostly fresh northwest winds north 
of 29N. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. Light to
moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are evident in the 
Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and 
moderate seas will persist in the offshore waters of Baja 
California through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to
strong gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late at 
night and diminishing in the afternoons well into next week. 
Seas will peak near 8 ft during the strongest winds. Wind speeds 
may increase to near gale by the middle of the upcoming week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh east to southeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, including the waters within 60 nm offshore southern 
Nicaragua. Seas with these winds are in the 4-6 ft range. 
Farther east, gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf 
of Panama along with seas of 3-5 ft. Per latest ASCAT data light
to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere over these
waters.

For the forecast, the fresh east-southeast winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo will pulse back up to fresh to strong tonight and into 
the early afternoons through early next week. Gentle to moderate 
winds will continue elsewhere along with a moderate long-period 
southerly swell, except in the Gulf of Panama where fresh 
northerly winds are expected through Tue night. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This 
activity is likely to continue through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the northwest part 
of the area near 26N137W. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east trade
winds north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 118W. These 
winds combined with a long-period north to northeast swell are 
resulting in seas of 8-9 ft. Light to gentle east to southeast 
winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas there are 5-7 ft due to a long-
period north swell. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east 
trade winds will change little through the weekend, then begin
to diminish in coverage some starting Mon. The northerly swell
will gradually decay through the weekend allowing for the
aforementioned 8-9 ft seas to subside to less than 8 ft by late 
Sun night. The tail-end of a cold front that presently reaches 
southwestward to 31N132W will approach 30N130W on Sat. Indications
are that it will be rather weak with no impacts to winds and 
seas. Looking ahead, the aforementioned high pressure will shift 
eastward Sat through late Sun in response to a cold front that 
will approach 30N140W late Sun. The front is expected to weaken 
further early next week as it moves over the north- central and 
northeast waters and as strong high pressure ridging builds east-
southeastward over those same waters. A large set of northwest 
swell inducing seas of 8-10 ft will begin to intrude into the far
northwest waters early on Mon.

$$
Aguirre