000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N78W to 03N109W.
The ITCZ stretches from 03N109W to 06N125W to beyond 03N140W. A
second surface trough extends from NW Peru near 05S81W to
03S100W. Another ITCZ stretches from 03S100W to 01S115W to
01S137W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 09N
and east of 103W. Similar convection is seen near the ITCZ
between 113W and 121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned well to the west of
Baja California support moderate northerly winds winds and seas
of 4-7 ft in the Baja California offshore waters. Light to
moderate northerly winds are found in the Gulf of California,
along with seas of 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and 
moderate seas will persist in the offshore waters of Baja 
California through the weekend and into early next week. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and building seas are possible 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect the
waters of the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to 92W. Seas 
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the Gulf
of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh speeds early this 
afternoon. These winds will pulse back up at night and into the 
early afternoons through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will
continue elsewhere along with a moderate long-period southerly 
swell, except in the Gulf of Panama where fresh northerly winds 
are expected Sat through Tue night. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica and over the offshore 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This activity 
is expected to continue through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remains centered over the northwest corner
of the eastern tropical Pacific, sustaining moderate to fresh
easterly winds north of the ITCZ to 24N and west of 110W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are
found south of 03S, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist 
north of 20N through tonight, with the related pressure gradient
allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N and west
of 110W. Combined seas will gradually subside through the 
weekend as the northerly swell decays. The western part of a cold
front that is presently near 32N135W will approach the northern
waters this afternoon into tonight while weakening. No 
significant impacts to winds and seas is expected with this 
front. Looking ahead, the aforementioned high pressure will shift
eastward Sat through late Sun in response to a cold front that 
will approach 30N140W late Sun. The front is expected to weaken 
further early next week as it moves over the north-central and 
northeast waters and as strong high pressure ridging builds east-
southeastward over those same waters.

$$
DELGADO