000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over NW Colombia to
08N78W to 08N87W to 04N95W to 04N105W to 05N116W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 
05N125W to 04N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is south of the trough and between 80W-88W. 
Scattered moderate convection south of the trough between 
88W-98W, within 180 nm south of the trough between 105W-109W and 
also within 60 nm north of the trough between 83W-85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure west of
the Baja California peninsula and low pressure over Mexico is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the central and southern
Gulf of California and moderate winds west of the Baja California
peninsula. Light to gentle winds northwest to north are noted 
elsewhere, except for light and variable winds over the northern
Gulf of California. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the Gulf 
of California, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft over the northern
part of the Gulf. Seas of 6-7 ft are west of the Baja California
peninsula as indicated by an overnight altimeter data pass over 
those waters. Seas of 4-6 ft remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, the light and variable winds over the northern
Gulf of California will change little through early next week, 
while mostly moderate northwest winds remain elsewhere over the 
Gulf. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and building seas 
are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into early next 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong northeast
to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate gap 
winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of 
Papagayo, 4-5 ft over the Gulf of Panama, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap 
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh speeds 
early this afternoon. These winds will pulse back up at night 
and into the early afternoons through Mon night. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere along with a moderate 
long-period southerly swell, except in the Gulf of Panama where 
fresh northerly winds are expected Sat through Tue night. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are offshore 
Costa Rica and over the offshore waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. This activity is expected to continue through 
Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 27N135W. The pressure 
gradient between the corresponding riadge north of 20N and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh northeast to east trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 
23N and west of 117W. These winds combined with a long-period 
north to northeast swell are resulting in seas of 8-9 ft. 
Moderate north to northeast winds and combined seas peaking to 7 
ft are present north of 20N and east of 125W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds associated to the 1024 mb high center are 
north of 22N and west of 125W as indicated in an overnight ASCAT 
pass over that part of the area. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range 
due to a long-period southwest swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist 
north of 20N through tonight, with the related pressure gradient
allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N and west
of 120W. Combined seas will gradually subside through the weekend
as the northerly swell decays. The western part of a cold front 
that is presently near 33N140W will approach 30N140W this 
afternoon into tonight while weakening. No significant impacts 
to winds and seas is expected with this front. Looking ahead, 
the aforementioned high pressure will shift eastward Sat through 
late Sun in response to a cold front that will approach 30N140W 
late Sun. The front is expected to weaken further early next 
week as it moves over the north-central and northeast waters and 
as strong high pressure ridging builds east-southeastward over 
those same waters.

$$
Aguirre