000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050251
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends along the coast of Colombia from 08N78W
to 08N85W to 04N90W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
87W and 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 12 ft combined
seas off the coast of Baja California, with the highest seas
within 90 nm southeast of Punta Eugenia. A pair of ship
observations indicated fresh to strong NW winds off the coast of
Baja California. These winds and seas followed a cold front that
moved into the region and dissipated earlier this morning. Fresh
to strong NW winds also are evident over the Gulf of California.
Gentle to moderate breezes persist farther south, with 4 to 6 ft
primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California 
Norte and the Gulf of California will diminish through Wed night 
as weak high pressure builds over the region. Combined seas of 8 
to 12 ft off Baja California with NW swell will subside through 
Thu. Mostly moderate winds and seas will persist across the 
region through Sat. Looking ahead, expect strong gap winds and 
building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The gradient between high pressure north of the of the region 
and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to strong
easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the 
Nicaraguan coast. Seas are peaking near 6 ft within these winds.
Moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist in the Gulf of 
Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to 
moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo will pulse mainly at night through Thu night. 
Early morning winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama 
through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere with moderate long-period southerly swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure 
centered near 33N135W to the south of Baja California. This 
pattern is supporting mostly moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
north of 10N, west of 110W, except for stronger NW winds off Baja
California. Combined seas are 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell. 
Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily 
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of 25N through 
Fri, causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature 
will maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equatorial 
latitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 
22N through the weekend.

$$
Christensen