000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 07N110W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 110W and 123W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 06N, between 128W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front currently extends across the northern Gulf of California and subtropical East Pacific from 31N113W to 28N120W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the front with moderate to fresh NW winds ahead of the front. Seas are likely 7-9 ft behind the front, on a building trend. Ahead of the front, seas are in the 5-7 ft range offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft offshore southern Mexico. In northern Gulf of California, fresh SW winds are funneling into coastal areas, building 3-5 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are observed off southern Mexico. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft in these areas. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility slightly in the coastal waters from Chiapas to Guerrero. For the forecast, while the cold front will dissipate overnight, a moderately strong pressure gradient will remain across subtropical eastern Pacific and Gulf of California. This gradient will support fresh to strong N to NW winds in the Pacific waters offshore Baja California Norte through Wed morning with fresh winds lingering in the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lucas through the week. Seas are quickly building across the northern zones and will peak near 15 ft north of Isla Guadalupe early Tue morning with 12 ft seas reaching as far south as 27N by Tue morning, and 8 ft seas reaching as far south as 17N by Wed night. In the northern Gulf of California, the frontal passage is causing winds to shift from SW to NW tonight, while remaining strong. These strong winds will last through Tue night before gradually decreasing. Seas will peak near 7 ft in the northern Gulf of California Tue morning and near 6 ft in the southern Gulf of California Wed morning. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to locally moderate W to NW winds prevail with seas of 3-5 in a SW swell. A sub-gale force Tehuantepec event may occur this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Liberia, Costa Rica continues to report fresh easterly winds, indicating a fresh to strong easterly gap wind is likely persisting across the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast. Expect these enhanced winds to extend downwind to about 90W. Seas are peaking near 6 ft in this area. Moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 03N. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Tue night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama tonight, and again Fri and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front is moving southeastward across the waters north of 25N. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the front with moderate N-NE winds ahead of the front. Seas are currently 7-9 ft behind the front, on a building trend. A area of fresh to strong trades persist across the west-central waters with altimeter observations of 8 to 11 ft seas in mixed N swell and NE wind waves. Gentle winds and moderate seas in a SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will stall and dissipate overnight. The pressure gradient will remain, with fresh to strong NE winds persisting north of 25N. Conditions will improve Wed as high pressure rebuilds near 31N135W. The seas peak at around 11 ft Tue before gradually propagating south and abating through Thu. Of note, the Weather Prediction Center International Desk is expecting a period of heavy rain across parts of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru due to the current sea surface temperatures warming across the eastern Pacific waters, convergence along the ITCZ, and low-level westerly wind bursts. For more information visit the Weather Prediction Center's website at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Flynn