000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020238
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 11N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 06N135W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 115W and
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extending from off southern California to off Los
Cabos is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft
combined seas off the coast of Baja California. Gentle breezes
are evident elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open
waters. 

For the forecast, the weakening ridge west of Baja California 
Norte will dissipate through early Sun ahead of a cold front 
approaching the region from the west. Winds and seas will 
increase off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California Mon as the front moves into the region. Fresh to 
strong NW winds will follow the front as it stalls and dissipates
by late Tue over the central Gulf of California and northern 
Baja California Sur. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft with NW 
swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through 
early Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the
region north of 20N by late Thu. Farther south, gentle breezes 
will persist along moderate combined seas primarily in SW swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region and
Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N based on
earlier scatterometer data. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the 
offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds are expected 
in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast at night through Sun 
night, with seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft. Afterward, fresh 
to strong winds are expected at night through late in the week. 
In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are 
forecast through Sun night with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. 
Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the 
offshore waters the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is starting to move south of 30N between 130W and
140W. A recent altimeter satellite pass from 00 UTC confirmed 8 
to 10 ft combined seas from 07N to 20N between 120W and 125W. 
This is part of a larger area of fresh to strong trade winds 
combined seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft from 05N to 20N west of 
115W. The combined seas are a mix of local wind seas attributed 
to the trade wind flow and a component of primarily NW swell. The
enhanced trade winds are due to high pressure building north of
the front, tightening the pressure gradient over the tropical
Pacific. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas with primarily
SW swell. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 125W
along with trade wind convergence in the lower levels is 
supporting scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ between 
115W and 120W. 

For the forecast, the aerial extent of the trades will increase
farther east into Sun as the high pressure north of the area 
strengthens some. A new swell event will reach the waters north
of 25N and propagate into the waters east of 130W Tue. At this 
time, combined seas of 8 to 12 ft will prevail, with the highest
seas across the waters west of Baja California Norte, 
particularly near Guadalupe Island.

$$
Christensen