000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012117
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 
07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 04N110W to 05N130W to
03N140W. A surface trough is analyzed along 132W/133W moving
westward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident from 04N to 08N between 93W and 101W, and from 03N to 
07N between 110W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with seas of 
5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
evident over the southern portion of the Gulf of California, 
between the ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Light
to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range due 
to SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place W Baja California 
through Sun night. A cold front will bring increasing winds and 
building seas N of Punta Eugenia on Mon. Expect NW winds of 20 to
25 kt and seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell by Mon evening. These 
marine conditions will reach the waters between Cabo San Lazaro 
and Punta Eugenia by Tue morning. At this time, fresh to strong 
NW winds are also expected in the wake of the front over the 
northern Gulf of California with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 
forecast to peak 13 or 14 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue 
morning. Seas associated with this swell event are expected to 
subside below 12 ft by Tue evening. Elsewhere, little change in 
the weather pattern is expected. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally 
fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of 
Panama and downstream to near 03N82W based on scatterometer data.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell 
prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to
support a gap wind event across the Gulfs of Papagayo and 
Panama the remainder of the weekend. Strong to near gale force 
winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast at
night through Sun night, with seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft.
Afterward, fresh to strong winds are expected at night the 
remainder of the forecast region. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate
to fresh N to NE winds are forecast through Sun night, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through midweek next week. Moderate long-period southerly swell 
will persist in all the offshore waters the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the west-central waters from 08N to 20N and 
W of 125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow is seen N of 25N and W of 120W due to 
the presence of a 1027 mb high pressure located near 31N129W. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
NW and S swell. 

For the forecast, the aerial extent of the trades will increase
farther E tonight into Sun as the high pressure N of the area 
strengthens some. A new swell event will reach the NE waters on
Mon, and propagate mainly across the waters north of 23N and E of
130W on Tue. At this time, seas of 8 to 12 ft will prevail, with
the highest seas across the waters W of Baja California Norte,
particularly N of 29N and E of 120W.

$$
GR