000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Swell Event: Combined seas of 10-12 ft are 
found over much of the tropical Pacific, mainly from 07N to 12N,
west of 135W. These wave are a combination of the local wind 
seas due to fresh to strong NE to E winds, along with a component
of longer period NW swell. The combined seas in this area will 
subside into Mon as winds diminish and swell decays. Farther to 
the northeast, fresh to strong northerly winds persist off Baja 
California Norte along with combined seas to 10-13 ft. Combined 
seas in excess of 12 ft are noted in the offshore waters north of
Cabo San Lazaro, mainly beyond 90 nm off the coast. These 
combined seas will subside off Baja California through tonight as
winds diminish and the swell decays.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 18details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N95W to 05N120W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 128W 
and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on large
swell off Baja California Norte.

Strong high pressure centered off California yesterday has been
weakening of a low pressure moving into the northeast Pacific 
along roughly 40W. This trend has allowed winds off Baja 
California Norte to diminish overnight, with generally 15 to 20 
kt NW winds noted north of 20N per ship observations. NW swell 
is still impacting the waters off Baja California. Combined seas 
in excess of 12 ft persist north of 24N, mainly beyond 60 nm off 
the coast. Highest wave heights may be reaching 13 ft to the 
northwest of Guadalupe Island. Recent altimeter satellite data
from 18 UTC suggest combined seas in excess of 8 ft mainly west 
of 110W. Moderate NW winds are noted along the length of the Gulf
of California, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light breezes with moderate 
seas in mixed NW and SW swell are noted off southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh northerly winds will continue today in the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Large NW swell will also 
impact waters north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. Winds and 
seas will diminish through Mon, as the high pressure dissipates 
ahead of the next low pressure system moving toward California. 
Wave heights will subside below 8 ft everywhere in Mexican waters 
by late Tue. Looking ahead, large swell will return to Baja 
California Norte offshore waters by late Thu associated with the 
remnants of the low pressure north of the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area continue to sustain fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo waters, 
extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the 
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap easterly winds will pulse 
nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua 
tonight through Fri night. Seas will build to 7-8 ft by the 
middle of the workweek in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event.

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated combined seas of 8
to 12 ft across the tropical Pacific waters. This is part of an 
area of combined seas to 12 ft extending from roughly 05N to 15N
west of 130W, in a mix of local trade wind seas along with NW 
and NE swell. Recent scatterometer data and reports from a pair 
of buoys along 140W between 05N and 10N indicated mainly fresh NE
trade winds in this same area. The areal extent of the fresh to 
strong winds has been shrinking as high pressure north of the 
area gradually weakens. But a broad area of fresh winds and 
combined seas in excess of 8 ft persists south of the high 
pressure, covering most of the region west of 110W. Farther east,
gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
continue to diminish overnight as the high pressure weakens 
ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move eastward across 
the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed. Expect another group of 
large northerly swell associated with the front entering the 
waters north of 25N by late Thu. 

$$
Christensen