000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Swell Event: Altimeter satellite data
indicate that combined seas of 10-14 ft are found over much of 
the tropical Pacific, especially north of 04N and west of 110W. 
Fresh to strong trade winds are present from the ITCZ to 25N and 
west of 115W based on the latest scatterometer satellite data. 
Seas generated from the large area of trades are mixing with 
longer-period NW swell. The winds will diminish slightly, 
allowing the wave heights to subside below 12 ft through late 
Sun. Large NW swell to 16 ft will also impact the waters off 
Baja California Norte late Sat into Sun, but this will also 
subside through late Sun. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N 
swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of 
30N by the middle of next week behind a weakening cold front. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
06N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N94W to 04N120W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 
10N and between 111N and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong
northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California.
Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are also present in the southern portion of the 
Gulf of California, and off Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights of 7-10
ft are occurring between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. 
Elsewhere, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light breezes and 
slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, a strong ridge will persist through early next
week. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sun
morning, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over 
the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW 
swell of 8-11 ft offshore Baja California will linger through
today, becoming reinforced by another group of NW swell expected
to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia this afternoon with 
seas of 10-14 ft and the highest waves will be beyond 90 nm. 
This swell will decay late Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW
to W winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed 
ahead of an approaching cold front. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest scatterometer satellite data captured moderate to fresh 
easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore waters 
of Nicaragua. Locally strong breezes are also possible through
early this morning. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama, 
along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap easterly winds will pulse 
nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua 
tonight through late next week. Seas will build to 7-8 ft by the
middle of next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas 
will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event over the west-central waters.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly winds cover most of the tropical
eastern Pacific, mainly north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. The
strongest winds are found near 11N123W. Seas in these waters are
8-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 11N128W. Moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds and
rough to very rough seas will diminish late this weekend as the 
high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front approaching from the 
northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move 
across the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed. 

$$
DELGADO