000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241552
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Swell Event: A recent altimeter pass indicates
seas of 10 to 14 ft within a large area of fresh to strong trades
that covers mainly the waters from 10N to 24N W of 120W. The trades
and the high seas will persist through Sun. The next swell event,
with seas in excess of 12 ft, will reach the waters north of Punta
Eugenia by Sat afternoon, with seas of 12 to 15 ft forecast to 
dominate the waters north of 26N between 116W and 124W by Sat 
night. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft in this area Sun 
evening. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N swell event with seas
of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of 30N by the middle of 
next week behind a weakening cold front. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N108W to 03N120W to 00N135W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 110W
and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California producing fresh to strong NW to N winds. Recent
satellite and ship observations confirm wave heights are 8 to 11
ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong NW 
winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California 
spreading farther south to the entrance of the Gulf toward Cabo 
Corrientes. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere, along with 3 to 5
ft seas. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central 
America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore 
waters of SW Mexico, particularly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
where the SAB Analysis shows a medium concentration.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the region through early next week. 
Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, 
with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the 
southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of
8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California will linger through the end 
of the week. The next swell event will reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 12 to 15 ft, decaying
by the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to 
W winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night 
into Wed due to an approaching cold front. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A ridge north of the area continues to support fresh to briefly
strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters
offshore Nicaragua, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds 
extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 05N, including 
near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 6 ft seas per an
earlier altimeter pass. Mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 
ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere. Smoke from 
agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some 
visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo
northward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night 
through the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 
Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at 
times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event over the west-central waters.

Strong high pressure persists across the forecast waters north of
20N. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh to strong 
trades, mainly from around 10N to 25N between 120W and 140W. 
Seas are 10 to 14 ft across this area, in mixed NE wind waves and
long- period NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of
7 to 10 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W, 
with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed S and 
NW swell across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the
forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds
will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong
winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 25N west of 115W 
by this evening. At the same time, fresh to strong NW to N winds
are also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California,
the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The 
area of fresh to strong winds will diminish on Sun as the high 
pressure weakens ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold front is forecast
to move across the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed. 

$$
Christensen