975 AXPZ20 KNHC 240917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 10 to 14 ft within a large area of fresh to strong trades that covers mainly the waters from 10N to 24N W of 120W. The trades and the high seas will persist through Sun. The next swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft, will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon, with seas of 12 to 15 ft forecast to dominate the waters north of 26N between 116W and 124W by Sat night. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft in this area Sun evening. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of 30N by the middle of next week behind a weakening cold front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 03N120W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 95W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing fresh to strong NW to N winds. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong NW winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California spreading farther south to the entrance of the Gulf. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft there. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted within about 45 nm of the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the SAB Analysis shows a medium concentration. For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the upcoming weekend. This is already producing an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California will linger through the end of the week. The next swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 12 to 15 ft, decaying by the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong SW to W winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed due to an approaching and weakening cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge N of the area continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 05N, including near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 6 ft seas per an altimeter pass. Mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere, with the exception of an area of moderate NE to E winds downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo from 07N to 12N between 89W and 94W. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the west-central waters. Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters, supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades, mainly from around 10N to 24N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 10 to 14 ft across this area, in mixed NE wind waves and long-period NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell across the remainder of the area. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 25N W of 115W by Fri evening. At the same time, fresh to strong NW to N winds are also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California, the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish on Sun as the high pressure weakens some. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A cold front is forecast to enter the N waters on Tue, reaching as far south as 24N-25N on Wed while weakening. $$ GR