000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232037 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: An expanding area of fresh to strong trades combining with long-period NW-N swell is supporting seas of 12-13 ft from 14N to 22N between 128W and 140W. The area of seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters from 07N to 21N west of 120W through the end of the week and into the weekend, subsiding by Sun evening. The next swell event with seas in excess of 12 ft will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon, with seas of 12-15 ft forecast to cover the waters north of 24N between 116W and 124W. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft in this area Sun evening. Looking ahead, yet another NW-N swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may drop south of 30N by the middle of next week behind a decaying cold front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 05N97W. The ITCZ extends from 05N97W to 05N117W to 04N136W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03S109W to beyond 03.4S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 95W and 129W, and from 09N to 13N between 101W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing fresh to strong NW-N winds within 60 nm of shore from between Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, and moderate to fresh NW-N winds elsewhere. Seas are 7-11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong NW winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of 3-6 ft there. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 1-3 ft seas are in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are near Cabo Corrientes. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere, along with 3-6 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the upcoming weekend. This will bring an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California tonight. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of 7-11 ft offshore Baja California will linger through the end of the week. The next swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 12-15 ft, decaying by the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong SW-W winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue afternoon due to an approaching and decaying cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua due to a tight pressure gradient, with seas of 5-8 ft. Fresh N winds extend from the Gulf of Panama south to near 02N, including near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 4-7 ft seas. Mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas in mainly S-SW swell prevail elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, scattered tstms will be possible offshore Ecuador, Colombia and Panama tonight. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the west-central waters. Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters, supporting expanding fresh to strong trades, currently from around 07N to 25N between 118W and 140W. Seas are 8-13 ft across this area, mixed with long-period NW-N swell. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of 02N and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell across the remainder of the area. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 26N wes of 114W by Fri afternoon. At the same time, fresh to strong NW-N winds are also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California, the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish by Sun afternoon as the high pressure weakens some. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may drop south of 30N late Mon night, dissipating over the northern waters through early next week. $$ Lewitsky