000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Long period NW swell combined with NE wind waves continues to generate a large area of 8 to 12 ft mainly N of a line from 30N116W to 25N114W to 20N120W to 12N140W. Seas will subside below 12 ft over the waters W of Baja California Norte late this morning, but seas to 12 ft will persist within the area of the trade winds. The next swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon. At this time, seas of 12 to 14 ft are forecast to cover the waters N of 27N between 117W and 124W. Seas will subside below 12 ft in this area by Sun evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N93W. The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 03N110W to 02N123W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 90 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 93W and 108W. Similar convective activity is observed from 02N to 07N between 118W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3 to 6 ft between Los Cabos and Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate W winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 29N while gentle to moderate NW to N winds are seen S of 29N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the upcoming weekend. This will bring an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California beginning later today. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The swell event currently affecting the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will continue to subside today. The next swell event will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 12 to 14 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of 20 to 30 kt NE to E winds in Lake Nicaragua, and in the Papagayo region with mainly fresh winds across the adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W. Fresh N-NE gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and northern South America, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft mainly due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the NE waters. Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters. As a result, trades have increased to fresh to strong from about 10N to 22N W of 130W based on latest scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 11 ft primarily in NE swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the forecast waters. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong winds covering roughly the waters from 06N to 24N W of 120W by this afternoon, and from 07N to 25N W of 120W by Fri afternoon. At the same time, fresh to strong winds are also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California, the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish by Sun afternoon as the high pressure weakens some. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may approach 30N late Mon night. $$ GR