000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell following a dissipating cold front continues to propagate across waters N of 25N between 119W and 132W, with seas of up to 14 ft in the vicinity of 29N122W. These seas will gradually subside tonight. Even as the NW swell decays Thu into Fri, it will mix with building shorter-period waves associated with northeast trade winds, with combined significant wave heights reaching to around 12 ft mainly from 07N to 20N and west of 119W. These seas of around 12 ft are likely to continue through early Sun before decaying for the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, strong NW winds from southern California to Baja California will build combined seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 25N offshore Baja California to 124W Sat afternoon through Sun before decaying. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 04N110W to 03N120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 112W AND 124W. Similar convective activity can be found from 10N to 12N between 95W and 100W, and from 09N to 11N between 100W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Seas are 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte in arriving NW swell. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted, except 3 to 6 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America is restricting visibility across portions of the waters offshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Expect fresh to locally strong NW winds Thu through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The swell event currently affecting the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will continue through the end of the week, with a reinforcing set this weekend, possibly building seas up to 12 to 14 ft from offshore Punta Eugenia northward. That swell will subside to less than 8 ft early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE-E gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Fresh N-NE gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and northern South America, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft mainly due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night, with locally strong winds possible tonight through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the northern waters tonight into early Thu, then over the west-central waters Thu night into the upcoming weekend. Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters. As a result, trades have increased to fresh to strong from about 10N to 22N W of 130W based on latest scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 11 ft primarily in NE swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the remainder of area waters. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage to around 05N to 23N W of 120W by Thu evening, and from 08N to 24N W of 120W by Fri evening. At the same time, winds will increase W of Baja California, in the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may approach 30N late Mon night. $$ GR