000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160214
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N101W. The ITCZ 
extends from 01N101W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 00N to 05N between 115W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front from moving SE through the waters offshore 
Baja California Norte. Winds N of the front are gentle to 
moderate and W to NW, with gentle to moderate N winds to the S. 
Ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California, localized 
fresh to strong SW gap winds are ongoing. Strong gap winds are 
also ongoing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds 
are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 
5-7 ft range are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as 
west of Baja California Norte. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the 
northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front in the Baja California Norte offshore
waters will move SE and into the northern Gulf of California
overnight, then dissipate Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California
tonight ahead of the front, then diminish Thu. In the wake of 
the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore 
Baja California tonight through Thu afternoon before diminishing 
slightly. Strong gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through tonight then diminish on Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range 
N of the equator, and 5-6 ft S of the equator in long-period S 
to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then
diminish Thu night. Winds may increase again in the Gulf of
Papagayo region for the start of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed near 23N123W. A cold front
extends from 28N120W to 26N128W, where it transitions to a 
stationary front that continues to 26N140W. Moderate to fresh
mainly E winds are occurring N of the boundary, with areas S of
the stationary front moderate to fresh SW winds. Seas in these
areas of winds are 6 to 8 ft.  The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is producing gentle to moderate trade winds N of the ITCZ to
near 18N and W of 115W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the discussion waters. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate 
by early Thu evening. The stationary front will lift N as a warm
front due to low pressure W of the area. This low and warm front
will impact the far NW waters with fresh to strong winds and seas
of 8 to 9 ft late tonight and early Thu. These conditions are 
forecast to diminish Thu night as the low pressure system 
continues to the northeast farther from the discussion area, 
while at the same time the warm front weakens. High pressure will
build along 23N to 24N this upcoming weekend.

$$
KONARIK