000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over northwest
Colombia southwestward to 06N77W to 03N86W to 03N95W and to
01N106W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ to 02N116W to 01N125W to 01N132W and 
00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 118W-121W, within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 123W-125W and between 130W-135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 24N123W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
over northern Mexico is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW 
to N winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including in the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over these waters due
to long-period W to NW swell. Lower seas of 1-3 ft are over
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California
the next few days. A cold front will reach the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters this afternoon. The front will dissipate
by early Thu evening over the central Gulf of California. Fresh 
to strong southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of 
California today and tonight ahead of the front. In the wake of 
the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore 
Baja California tonight through early Thu afternoon, at which 
time they diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Strong gap winds
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and tonight, 
diminishing on Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range N
of the equator, and 4-6 ft S of the equator in long-period S to 
SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the 
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then 
diminish Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed near 24N123W. A cold front 
is over the north-central and NW waters along a position from 
near 30N126W to 27N133W and to 26N138W. It continues as a 
stationary front to west 140W. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and lower pressure associated with the
cold front is supporting fresh SW winds E of the front to near 
121W along with seas of 8-9 ft in long-period W to NW swell. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining generally 
gentle to moderate trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of
about 118W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the
discussion waters. Aside from the area of 8-9 ft seas mentioned 
above, seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will begin to
weaken as it reaches from northern Baja California to the
northeast part of the area by early this evening and dissipate 
by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong SW and E winds with seas
of 8-9 ft are expected north of 26N and west of 130W starting 
tonight as a warm front associated with a low pressure system 
west of the area that will track to the northeast moves across 
the NW waters. These conditions are forecast to diminish Thu 
night as the low pressure system continues to the northeast 
farther from the discussion area, while at the same time the 
warm front weakens. High pressure will build along 23N to 24N 
this upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre