000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140934 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Ecuador: The large-scale environment remains favorable for continued periods of heavy rainfall over portions of Ecuador tonight. Some flash flooding is possible. After tonight, the intensity of the rainfall will diminish to more normal rates for this time of year. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low near 09N89W to 04N100W and to 03N109W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N130W and to 02.5S140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 118W-122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Relatively weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered west of these waters near 31N129W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures over northern Mexico is inducing moderate to fresh NNW winds in the offshore waters to the west of Baja California, as shown in the latest ASCAT satellite data. The latest ASCAT pass also shows generally moderate NW winds over the southern and central Gulf of California. Winds are likely gentle in the northern Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere east of 111W. Seas are 6-8 ft to the west of Baja California and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. For the forecast, fresh NNW winds will continue near, and within 150 nm west of the coast of Baja California tonight. Weak high pressure will shift eastward over the area Tue allowing for gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California will remain through tonight. Relatively quiet conditions are expected elsewhere through Tue. A cold front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters early Wed, and move southeastward over the northern Gulf of California late Wed, then weaken and dissipate early Thu over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Wed and Wed night ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja California Wed night through Thu night. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to bring fresh to strong N winds early Wed through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle and variable winds are over the offshore waters of Central America and South America. Seas are 4-5 ft across the area due to a long-period S to SW swell. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are observed over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, southern Nicaragua and northern Panama. Conditions aloft are favorable for this activity to remain active through Tue. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds are expected over just about the entire offshore waters through the forecast period. Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will briefly become moderate to fresh Thu into early Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed near 31N129W. The associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle winds to exist from 24N to 30N between 119W-127W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. A 1004 mb low pressure system is centered NW of the area near 33N133W. A warm front extends ESE from the low to near 30N126W, while a cold front extends from the low southwestward to 30N138W to 29N140W. A tight gradient between the low pressure and its associated fronts with the aforementioned high pressure is leading to strong to near gale-force SW winds and seas of 8-11 ft N of about 27N and W of 130W. Moderate E winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail from 10N-23N west of 120W. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front in the northwest portion of the area should move from west to east across the waters north of 26N through Tue. The cold front will cross 30N140W this evening, then extend from 30N127W to 25N140W early Tue evening, then start to weaken as it reaches from 30N121W to 25N134W early Wed. It should then dissipate by late Wed night. A warm front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed evening. The gradient associated with this system is forecast to support fresh to strong winds along with building seas north of 25N and west of 128W through Thu evening. Looking ahead, high pressure will build in along 23/24N this weekend. $$ Aguirre