000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102054
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Very Heavy to Extreme Rainfall over Ecuador and Western Peru: The
large-scale environment is favorable for continued very heavy to
extreme rainfall over portions of NW South America through late 
next week. Although the threat will exist on a daily basis, the 
risk is higher in Ecuador during late Sun through Tue morning, in
NW Peru late Mon through Wed morning, and in W central Peru Mon 
and Tue. This rain may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Please refer to your local meteorological service for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N79W to 00N115W. The ITCZ 
extends from 00N115W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted south of 00N east of 88W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 27N122W extends a ridge 
southeastward to 13N97W. NW winds are moderate to fresh west of 
the Baja California peninsula and moderate or weaker elsewhere. 
Seas are 4-6 ft except 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail offshore the Baja California peninsula through Mon. Winds
will remain moderate or weaker across the remainder of the 
waters through early next week. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind event may begin on Wed. A set of NW swell will build seas to
8 ft offshore Baja California from Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through late 
next week.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh W winds are 
also observed across the S equatorial offshore waters with seas 
4-5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
remainder of the offshore waters with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Winds will be moderate 
or weaker elsewhere for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a deep low pressure system
northwest of the area and a 1022 mb high pressure at 27N122W is 
supporting fresh to strong SW winds north of 27N between
125W-135W. South of the high, the NE trades are only gentle to 
moderate between 03N-20N west of 117W. Seas are 8-12 ft north of
23N and west of 132W due to W to NW swell and SW wind waves. 
Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.
 
For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW winds will diminish
tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds should then be
tranquil over the High Seas waters through Sun night. Fresh to
strong SW winds ahead of a new cold front should move across the
waters north of 25N on Mon and Tue. The long-period NW swell 
will push southeastward while gradually diminishing, dropping 
below 8 ft by Sun night. 

$$
Landsea