000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N87W to 02N101W. The ITCZ extends from 02N110W to 00N133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 09N E of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 25N123W extends a ridge southeast across the offshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula. A slight strengthening of the ridge have resulted in the development of fresh NW winds over the offshore waters between Magdalena Island and Punta Eugenia and along Jalisco coastal waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds are across the remainder Baja offshore waters and along the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas along the Baja Peninsula offshores range between 4 to 6 ft in NW swell while seas of 3 to 4 ft dominate elsewhere, except to 2 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail offshore Baja California through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia Sat through Mon. Winds will pulse to moderate in the central and southern Gulf of California during the afternoon and overnight hours through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. A set of NW swell will build seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California by the end of the weekend into early next week. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through Saturday. Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder discussion waters. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in S to SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to fresh south of western Panama Fri night through Sat. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell form offshore Ecuador to offshore Galapagos Islands Fri through early next week, with little change in seas elsewhere. Active convection will continue offshore western Panama and Costa Rica with locally higher winds and seas possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a deep low pressure system NW of the area and high pressure over the discussion waters N of 20N is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW waters N of 23N and W of 127W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of 115W, and light to gentle winds E of 115W. NW swell has propagated into the NW waters, and seas have built to 8 to 11 ft over these waters. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient mentioned above will support fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater over the NW waters through Fri. Seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate eastward reaching to near 125W by the weekend, with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend, with fairly tranquil conditions expected for the start of next week. $$ Ramos