000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080146
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0030 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall
totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and 
northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region 
in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average 
precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall 
totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica 
where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your 
local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Costa Rica near 08N82W to 04N95W to
00N109W. The ITCZ extends along the Equator between 123W and
140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 11N between 80W and 90W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 90W and 94W, from 02N
to 03.4S between 92W and 96W, from 00N to 05N between 120W and 
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching strong speeds 
within 60 nm of shore from near Punta Eugenia northward. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft 
range in NW swell offshore Baja California, with seas of 3 to 6 
ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of 
California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range, reaching 3 ft at the
entrance to the Gulf. Some haze continues to be reported at 
coastal sites of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
through the week and into the weekend near and north of Punta 
Eugenia. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the 
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the 
week and into the weekend. NW swell will support seas greater 
than 8 ft offshore Baja California through mid-week. Little 
change in seas is forecast elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Outside
of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in S to 
SW, except 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia. Some haze continues to 
be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Wed morning, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the
end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will reach near 7 ft 
during the period of fresh to strong winds. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S 
to SW swell, except 4 to 6 ft from offshore Ecuador to offshore
the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends from 26.5N10W to 24N135W with an associated 
area of fresh to strong winds and 8 to 9 ft seas in the NW 
waters. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters north of 
the ITCZ which is suppressed to along the Equator. Gentle to
moderate winds are found across the remainder of the open waters.
Subsiding NW to N swell with seas of 8 to 11 ft is north of 
about 15N. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere,
except 4 to 6 ft mixed with SW swell east of 100W.
 
For the forecast, the NW to N swell over the northern waters 
will gradually decaying through mid-week. Low pressure and 
associated fronts west of 140W are expected to continue to bring 
fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft over a 
portion of the NW waters through tonight. A cold front may 
approach 30N140W by early Thu, with fresh to strong SW winds and 
seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N 
through Thu night. The seas of 8 ft or greater will continue 
eastward reaching to near 125W by the weekend, and with seas of 
12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N and west of 136W Fri night 
into early Sat. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere 
through the week and into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky