000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060719 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0650 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Azuero Peninsula near 07N81W to 00N102W. The ITCZ extends from south of 03.4S through 03.4S115W to 02S120W, then resumes from 02N127W to 03N140W. No significant convection is noted near the surface trough or ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. NW to N moderate to fresh winds are from near and north of Punta Eugenia per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. NW to N moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except anticyclonic winds offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Sur, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf of California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will develop today and prevail through the week from near and north of Punta Eugenia. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. NW swell will build offshore Baja California through mid-week with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the waters. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed offshore southern Colombia, offshore Ecuador including the Gulf of Guayaquil, and south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the end of the week. Seas are expected to reach to around 7 ft during the fresh to strong winds. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with mainly seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ, with moderate or weaker winds across the open waters, locally fresh north of 20N and west of 136W. Large NW to N swell of 8 to 12 ft is north of about 24N. Seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft in SW swell east of 100W. For the forecast, low pressure and associated fronts west of 140W are expected to introduce fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft over a portion of the NW waters from tonight through Tue evening. A cold front may approach 30N140W by early Thu, with associated fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week. Meanwhile, the large NW to N swell over the northern waters will spread seas of 8 ft or greater to near 15N by mid-week while gradually decaying. $$ Lewitsky