000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0120 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama
near 07.5N78W to 04N95W to 02N111W. The ITCZ extends from 03N112W
to 04N140W. A second ITCZ is south of 03.4S between 100W and
113W, then from 03.4S113W to 02N118W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03.5N to 05.5N between 120W and 127W,
and from 05N to 13N between 133W and 140W.

Of note, during March and April of each year, a second ITCZ is 
present in the southern hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, 
especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea 
surface temperatures are stronger. This rather special situation 
is analyzed tonight on the surface map. Forecast models continue 
to show a well defined second ITCZ south of the equator through 
at least Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico,
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds from near Cabo
Corrientes to offshore Baja California and in the Gulf of
California south of 30N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell west of 110W including
offshore Baja California, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere including in
the Gulf of California south of 27N. Seas are 3 ft or less in the
Gulf of California north of 27N. Areas of light smoke and haze 
due to agricultural fires are likely over the offshore waters of 
SE Mexico.

For the forecast, winds will mainly be moderate or weaker across
the offshores of Mexico by Sat morning, then will increase to
moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte Sat night, then
increase further to fresh to strong Sun night, reaching to near
Cabo San Lazaro by early Mon. Fresh to strong winds may develop
in the far northern Gulf of California late Wed night. Meanwhile,
the NW swell west of 110W will subside into early Sat, with a new
NW swell set reaching off Baja California Norte Sat afternoon,
building seas to 7 to 9 ft from Cabo San Lazaro northward through
Sun afternoon, with yet another NW swell set early next week
pushing seas of 8 ft or greater to 110W by mid-week. Winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec may pulse to fresh to strong early Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E offshore winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo and just north of there, with mainly light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Areas
of light smoke and haze due to agricultural fires are over the 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, then
pulse to fresh to strong thereafter. Seas will build to 5 to 7 
ft during the pulsing fresh to strong winds. Winds will pulse to
moderate in the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula
through the next several days, with light to gentle winds across
the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas will be mainly 3 to 5
ft in S to SW swell, except building to 4 to 6 ft offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Sat night through Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail north of about 07N and west of 110W,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 6 to 9 ft
in NW to N swell across the area of moderate to locally fresh 
trades, and 4 to 7 ft in in mixed SW and NW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, a system west of 140W may spread associated
fresh to strong E to SE winds across the NW waters early Mon
through early Wed. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere. 
Meanwhile the existing area of NW to N swell will subside through
the weekend. A new set of NW swell will push south of 30N by
early Sat, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to near 24N by 
early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south of 30N Sun, 
with seas of 8 ft or greater covering most of the waters north 
of 15N and west of 110W by Mon evening, then gradually decaying
through mid-week. Seas of 12 ft or greater will spread south of
30N by Sun evening, reaching to near 28N before subsiding to less
than 8 ft by early Mon.

$$
Lewitsky