000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031533
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and
Panama at 08N77W to 07N90W to 02N106W. The ITCZ extends from 
01N115W to 05N140W. A second and more active ITCZ is analyzed 
south of the equator. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 10N W of 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Fresh to strong NW to
N winds are noted in the Gulf of California south of 27N spilling
south of the entrance as well as offshore Cabo Corrientes with 6
to 8 ft seas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the northern Gulf of 
California. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in NW swell dominate the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere, except locally fresh nearshore Oaxaca, along with 4 
to 6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California the
remainder of the week producing moderate to locally fresh NW to 
N winds. The fresh to strong winds over the southern Gulf of 
California and near Cabo Corrientes will diminish to moderate to
fresh in the afternoon, and then moderate or weaker thereafter.
Seas will continue to subside to 5 to 7 ft across the offshore
waters of Baja California by Sat morning. At this time, a new 
swell event is forecast to reach the waters N of 29N. Additional 
pulses of NW swell will propagate through the waters west of Baja
California through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo,
with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Winds
are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft
offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and 3 to 5 ft in S to
SW swell elsewhere. Haze is being reported near the coast and 
offshore El Salvador and Guatemala due to nearby agricultural 
fires, with some reduction to visibilities possible.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh offshore winds are
forecast offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Sat night, then pulsing to fresh to strong thereafter 
with local seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere with little change in sea heights.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong 
trades are noted from near 10N to 20N west of 136W, with 8 to 11
ft seas in mixed NE to E wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate 
to fresh trades elsewhere north of about 05N and west of 110W, 
along with 7 to 9 ft seas in mainly NW to N swell. Winds are 
moderate or weaker and seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of
the open waters.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trades will
diminish by this evening as the ridge weakens. Meanwhile the NW 
to N swell will also subside. A new set of NW swell with seas of 
8 ft or greater will drop south of 30N early Sat, reaching to 
near 24N by early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south of
30N Sun, with seas of 12 ft or greater north of 28N by early 
Mon, then decaying to less than 12 ft by Mon afternoon. The edge 
of seas of 8 ft or greater will continue southward, reaching to 
around 10N by early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds associated
with a warm front west of the area may spread into the NW waters
early next week.

$$
GR