000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030720
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and
Panama at 07N78W to 07.5N90W to 02N106W. The ITCZ extends from
02N113W to 03N140W. A second, southern ITCZ is analyzed south of
03.4S, west of 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 06N between 87W and 90W, and from 02S to 03.4S between 99W
and 102W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. Fresh to strong NW to
N winds are noted in the Gulf of California south of 27N 
spilling south of the entrance as well as offshore Cabo 
Corrientes per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with 4 to 7 ft 
seas, except to 8 ft near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 ft or less
elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Seas of 7 to 11 ft in NW 
swell are from near 108W westward including across the offshore 
Baja California waters. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, 
except locally fresh nearshore Oaxaca, along with 4 to 6 ft seas
in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to support moderate to 
fresh winds offshore Baja California with fresh to strong winds 
from near Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of California south of 27N 
through this morning, diminishing to moderate to fresh in the
afternoon, and then moderate or weaker thereafter. Seas of 8 ft 
or greater in NW swell west of 108W will gradually subside 
through tonight, then building to 8 ft or greater in a new set 
of NW swell offshore Baja California Norte Sat afternoon, getting
reinforced and spreading to near 110W by early next week. Fresh 
to strong NW to N winds will develop offshore Baja California 
from near Punta Eugenia northward early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo,
with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Winds
are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft
offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, and 3 to 5 ft in S to
SW swell elsewhere. Haze is being reported near the coast and 
offshore El Salvador and Guatemala due to nearby agricultural 
fires, with some reduction to visibilities possible.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh offshore winds are
forecast offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Sat night, then pulsing to fresh to strong thereafter 
with local seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere with little change in sea heights.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ.
Fresh to strong trades are noted by recent ASCAT scatterometer
data from near 09N to 22N west of around 120W, with 9 to 12 ft 
seas in mixed NE to E wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate to 
fresh trades elsewhere north of about 05N and west of 110W, 
along with 7 to 11 ft seas in mainly NW to N swell. Winds are 
moderate or weaker and seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder 
of the open waters.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trades will
diminish by this evening as the ridging weakens. Meanwhile the 
NW to N swell will also subside. A new set of NW swell with seas 
of 8 ft or greater will drop south of 30N early Sat, reaching to
near 24N by early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south 
of 30N Sun, with seas of 12 ft or greater north of 28N by early 
Mon, then decaying to less than 12 ft by Mon afternoon. The edge 
of seas of 8 ft or greater will continue southward, reaching to 
around 10N by early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds 
associated with a warm front west of the area may spread into the
NW waters early next week.

$$
Lewitsky