000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A scatterometer satellite pass from 04 UTC confirmed gale force winds over the far northern Gulf of California. The gales follow a cold front moving through the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. The satellite data showed winds out of the northwest over the far northern Gulf, following the front. The satellite also showed strong SW winds ahead of the front over the central Gulf of California. Winds over the northern Gulf will diminish below gale force through the early part of this morning, then continue to diminish through the afternoon. The front will gradually dissipate as it moves southward today, but will bring briefly strong winds through the remainder of the Gulf, first as SW winds ahead of the front, then NW winds following the front. Wave heights may be reaching 8 ft over the far northern Gulf, but this should subside quickly this morning. Highest waves may reach 5 ft farther south through the afternoon. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Buoys off southern California continue to show very large combined seas, reaching as high as 16 ft. The very large waves are in part due to strong to near-gale force NW winds following the cold front, but also longer-period NW swell that has been impacting the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia east of 125W for the past couple of days. The winds will diminish through the morning, and the swell will decay enough for combined seas to subside below 12 ft this afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the gale warning and on the Swell Event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 02N130W to beyond 02N140W. A second trough reaches from 03.5N78W to 03S90W. A second ITCZ extends from 03.4S94W to 03.4S110W. No significant weather is evident. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing northerly swell event and on a Gulf of California gale warning. A strong cold front currently extends from Nogales, Arizona across the northern Gulf of California to near Punta Eugenia to 27N125W. Strong NW winds follow the front west of 125W, with gale-force NW winds over the far northern Gulf of California. Wave heights are 8 to 15 ft north of the front in a mix of local wind waves and longer period NW swell. NW swell in excess of 8 ft persists off Baja California Sur beyond 120 nm, with 5 to 7 ft closer to shore, and moderate to fresh NW winds across the region. Gentle W to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are evident off southern Mexico, south of 20N. For the forecast, a strong cold front is moving across northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California. NW winds reaching minimal gale force over the far northern Gulf of California will diminish later this morning as the front gradually slows and dissipates. Large NW swell in the wake of the front will subside Fri night. Additional sets of NW swell will propagate through the waters west of Baja California Sat through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds are likely pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are likely over the Gulf of Panama. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are likely elsewhere. For the forecast, winds offshore of southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds through the morning with seas peaking to around 7 ft. Expect fresh pulses tonight, and again Sat night, with stronger pulses by Sun as high pressure builds north of the area. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a northerly swell event. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong NE to E winds from roughly 10N to 25N west of 125W. These trade winds are south of high pressure over the north central Pacific. Recent altimeter satellite data helps confirm wave heights are 8 to 12 ft, with the highest waves near 140W. This is a combination local wind waves along with longer-period NW swell. Moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 120W, with gentle breezes and 3 to 5 waves east of 120W. No significant weather is evident across the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish over tropical waters south of 20N through Sat as high pressure weakens north of the area and existing swell decays. New swell will enter the waters north of 28N east of 135W Sat, followed by another northerly swell group moves into the waters south of 30N Sun, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft reaching 25N by late Mon. $$ Christensen