000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh to near gale-force SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California on Wed morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move across the Baja California Norte and the Gulf itself Wed evening. Gale-force NW winds will follow the front over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N for several hours on Wed night. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft during this period. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: The leading edge of a new set of long-period NW swell is propagating into the NE part of the area. This swell will be reinforced by another set of NW swell that will approach these same waters W of Baja California beginning on Wed as a strong cold front moves across the region. The swell will spread southward, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 17N between 110W-118W, and to near 13N between 118W-124W by Thu morning. Maximum seas forecast from this swell event will be in the range of 10-16 ft at a period of 10-14 seconds, with the highest of the seas expected N of about 27N between Baja California Norte and 124W on Wed evening into early Thu. The swell will begin to decay late on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the Gale Warning and on the Swell Event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 02N103W then resumes from 00N120W to 03N130W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 04S96W to 06S110W to 04S127W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 09S between 101W and 121W and from 03N to 17N W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing northerly swell event and a Gulf of California Gale Warning. Very strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends southeastward from this high center to across the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California and its offshore waters and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas there are 4-8 ft in long-period NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are over the southern Gulf of California along with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, the fresh NW winds offshore Baja California will continue through Wed night as strong high pressure W of Baja California weakens. A strong cold front is forecast to approach the waters W of Baja California Norte N of 29N late Wed afternoon, then quickly move across the remainder of the waters W of Baja California and the entire Gulf of California through Thu evening while it weakens. Fresh to strong W to NW winds will follow the front over the waters W of Baja California Norte Wed afternoon. This front will be preceded by strong to near gale- force SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California Wed with seas building to 10 ft. Gale-force NW winds will then follow the front and affect the Gulf waters N of 30N for several hours on Wed night. Fresh to near gale-force W to NW winds will also affect the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Wed evening, with fresh to strong NW to N winds extending southward to Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Large NW swell in the wake of the front will subside Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are also in the Gulf of Panama extending past the Azuero Peninsula with seas to 4 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere along with seas of 3-4 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, with little overall change expected in the present synoptic pattern, winds offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night and into the mornings through Thu, with peak seas to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the mornings through Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a northerly swell event. Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are just north of the ITCZ extending to near 19N between 118W-132W and to near 24N between 132W-140W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in the 8-11 ft range, with the highest of the seas present from 07N to 11N between 136W-140W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere across the area, with seas of 6-8 ft in NW to N swell, except 8-10 ft N of 22N and W of 133W. A large set of long-period NW to N swell has propagated into the northern waters N of 28N between 127W-136W per recent altimeter data over that part of the area. Resultant seas from this swell are in the 10-13 ft range. A surface trough is analyzed over the far western part of the area from 04N137W to 10N138W as observed on satellite imagery and as reflected in a recent ASCAT data pass over that part of the area. The imagery shows areas of rain with embedded scattered moderate convection from 08N to 13N between 128W-134W. The ASCAT data highlighted fresh to strong NE trade winds across and near the northern section of the trough. Global model guidance suggest that this trough will shift W of the area tonight and possibly develop into a low pressure system. $$ Ramos