000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272347 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2345 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023 Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: The leading edge of a new set of long-period NW swell will begin to propagate into the northeast part of the area starting Tue afternoon in the wake of a rather weak cold front that is expected to move across the waters N of of Punta Eugenia. The front will dissipate Tue. The swell will be reinforced by yet another set of NW swell that will begin infiltrate these same waters W of Baja California beginning on Wed as a strong cold front moves across those waters. The swell will spread southeastward and south, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching near 16N between 110W-162W by early on Thu. Maximum seas generated by this swell event are expected to be in the range of 10-17 ft at a period of 10-14 seconds, with the highest of the seas expected N of about 29N between Baja California Norte and 123W late on Wed. The swell is forecast to begin to decay starting late on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia, southwestward to 06N83W to 03N95W to 03N111W. The ITCZ extends from 03N111W to 04N123W, where it pauses to the E of a trough. It resumes to the W of the tough at 04N129W and continues to beyond 06N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 03.4S93W to 03S100W to 01S109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 134W-138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an upcoming northerly swell event. Very strong high pressure of 1040 mb is centered well to the northwest of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends southeastward from this high center to across the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting mainly fresh NW to NE winds across the Baja California and Jalisco offshore waters, and the entrance of the Gulf of California where seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW winds are in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California along along with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, the fresh NW winds offshore Baja California will continue through Thu night, then diminish as strong high pressure W of Baja California weakens. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will generally continue through the forecast period. A weakening cold front will move across the waters W of Baja California Norte tonight, then dissipate Tue as it moves across the central Baja California and the central Gulf of California. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to approach the waters W of Baja California Norte N of 29N late Wed afternoon, then quickly move across the remainder of the waters W of Baja California and across the entire Gulf of California through Thu evening while it weakens. This front will be preceded by strong to near gale- force SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California Wed night. Seas with these winds are forecast to reach 10 ft. The front will be followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds offshore Baja California. These winds will extend southward through the end of the week. A new set of large NW swell will follow in behind the front. The swell will propagate through the waters offshore Baja California. It will begin to decay on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT data pass over the Gulf of Papagayo region indicates mainly fresh NE to E winds there and reaching to near 90W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Winds over the offshore waters of southern Nicaragua have become NE to E at gentle to moderate speeds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft due to a long-period SW swell. For the forecast, with little overall change expected in the present synoptic pattern, winds offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night and into the mornings through Thu, with peak seas to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the mornings through Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the upcoming northerly swell event. Latest ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds just north of the ITCZ extending to near 21N and W of about 112W. The locally strong winds are confined to the western part of the area. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in the 8-11 ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N124W southwestward to 28N130W, where it begins to dissipate to near 27N139W. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to locally strong NE winds behind the front. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. These seas are spreading out ahead of the front for 120 nm W of 135W. The ASCAT data also suggests that winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades will continue over the same area through Fri. Northerly swell will begin to decay tonight. A reinforcing set of long-period northerly swell is forecast to arrive into the north-central waters Tue and linger through the rest of the week while it slowly decays. A surface trough may form over the far western part of the tropical region near 140W by late Wed night. If this does occur, expect for trade winds in that part of the area to possibly increase to strong to near-gale force speeds, and for seas to build significantly. $$ Aguirre