000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of northerly swell is 
decaying, however seas of 12 to 13 ft are covering the waters 
from 22N to 30N between 118W and 140W, with wave periods of 12 
to 14 seconds. Seas will decay to less than 12 ft later this 
morning. Looking ahead, another set of northerly swell with seas 
of 12 ft or greater may push south of 30N on Tue through the mid-
week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is analyzed from the Pacific coast of Colombia
near 08N79W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 00N140W. 
A second ITCZ extends from south of the Galapagos Islands from
02S92W to 01S106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
01N to 06N between 111W and 122W and along the secondary ITCZ. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front extends from S Arizona to across the northern Gulf 
of California and Baja California Norte to southwest of Punta 
Eugenia. Fresh to strong W-NW winds behind the front are 
spreading across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, and ahead of 
the front in the northern Gulf of California where seas are 4 to 
6 ft. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California 
Norte, and 5 to 8 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico
under a weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front, except 
for fresh to strong NW-N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 
locally fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in 
mainly NW swell across the remainder of the waters, except mixed 
with southerly swell offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving southeast
today while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
northern Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Norte 
through today. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja 
California will continue through tonight, bringing rough seas to
the Baja California offshore waters. The swell will decay on 
Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front setting up 
fresh to strong winds from near Cabo Corrientes, northwestward 
to offshore Baja California, and in the southern Gulf of 
California for the early part of the week. The next cold front 
will arrive Wed night through Thu night bringing fresh to strong 
winds in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California, 
spreading southward through the end of the week. A new set of 
large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California.
Fresh NW winds will diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through this morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are noted offshore 
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo per an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Seas to 9 
ft prevail with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW 
swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through the week, with
seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama through the week. Winds will be moderate or
weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the 
forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front is analyzed from Baja California near Punta Eugenia
at 27N114W to 22N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are following the
front over the open waters. A surface trough is analyzed south 
of the front from 20N122W to 10N123W. Weak surface ridging 
prevails elsewhere north of the ITCZ. The resultant pressure 
gradient is supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of 
the trough between 114W and 131W, with moderate to fresh trades 
elsewhere north of about 05N and west of 120W. Winds are moderate
or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in northerly swell 
covers the waters north of 03N and west of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft south of the Equator, and north of
the Equator east of 100W.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually dissipate through
this evening, while another cold front drops south of 30N tonight
while weakening. The moderate to fresh trades, locally strong, 
will persist across the same area through the early part of the 
week as the trough drifts west-southwest. An expanding area of 
fresh to strong trades will occur Mon night through mid-week as 
the pressure gradient tightens. The northerly swell will persist 
today, decaying thereafter until a reinforcing set arrives Tue 
through mid-week.

$$
ERA