000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly swell continues to support seas of 8 to 15 ft, highest near 30N126W, with the extent of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching from north of 04N and west of 110W, and the extent of seas of 12 ft or greater reaching from north of 23N between 119W and 140W. Wave periods are 13 to 15 seconds. Seas will decay to less than 12 ft Sun morning. Looking ahead, another set of northerly swell with seas of 12 ft or greater may push south of 30N on Tue through the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from the border of Colombia and Panama near 07N78.5W to 06.5N89W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N89W to 03N100W to 05N120W to 01N140W. A southern ITCZ is analyzed from south of the Galapagos Islands through 03.4S411W to 01S106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05.5N between 94W and 101W, and from 01S to 03.4S between 90W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A strong cold front is currently from the northern Gulf of California near 32N114W to across Baja California Norte to 25N118.5W. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are near the front, except fresh to strong in the Gulf of California north of 29.5N where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and 4 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico under a weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front, except for moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in mainly NW swell across the remainder of the waters, except mixed with E to SE swell offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving southeast tonight while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the northern Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Norte through Sun. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue through the Sun night, bringing rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters. The swell will decay Mon and Mon night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front setting up moderate to fresh winds from near Cabo Corrientes northwestward to offshore Baja California, and in the southern Gulf of California for the early part of the week. Winds will be locally strong between offshore Cabo San Lazaro and near Punta Eugenia. The next cold front will arrive Wed night through Thu night bringing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Norte, spreading southward in the Gulf of California through the end of next week. A new set of large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas to 8 ft prevail with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to near-gale during the evenings and early morning hours through Sun morning, then fresh to strong thereafter. Seas will peak to 8 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A cold front is analyzed from 29N114.5W to 22N130W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 28N east of 127W. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 21N118W to 14N122W. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from high pressure centered well northwest of the area covers the remainder of the waters between the ITCZ and the front. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to 20N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Other than the large swell mentioned above, seas are 8 to 11 ft across the area of fresh to strong trades, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 110W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds associated with the cold front will diminish tonight as the front dissipates. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the same area through into early next week. The area of moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh to strong Mon night through the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens. The large northerly swell mentioned above stretches seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 02N and west of 113W by early Sun, then decaying into early next week until a reinforcing set arrives Tue through the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky