000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240727 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly swell continues to support seas of 8 to 15 ft per a recent altimeter pass, highest near 30N128W, with the extent of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching from north of about 15N and west of 111W. Wave periods are 13 to 15 seconds. This swell event will continue to spread southward today, with a reinforcing set of northerly swell associated with an arriving cold front tonight through Sat night. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach all the way to 22N by Sat night before decaying through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ extends from 05N87W to 02N110W to 01N125W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A surface trough extends from near the border of Arizona and California to across Baja California Norte to near 25.5N123W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to around 5 ft are across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the remainder of the Gulf of California. A ridge extends south-southeast of the trough through 27N119W to across the offshore waters terminating near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters, except fresh to locally strong near Cabo Corrientes due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over central Mexico. Seas of 7 to 13 ft in NW swell are offshore Baja California, and 3 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with SE swell offshore Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will continue across the northern Gulf of California through the next few hours, as well as near Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop again in the northern Gulf of California Sat morning through Sun. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue today. Another swell event bringing rough seas will affect the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Sun as a cold front moves across the area. The front will bring fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it offshore Punta Eugenia northward. The swell will decay thereafter with the possibility of another large set arriving Tue night. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat morning through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo per an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 3 to 5 ft seas. Mainly light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to strong to near gale-force during the evenings and early morning hours through Sun morning, then fresh to strong thereafter. Seas will build to around 8 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, briefly increasing to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and again Sat evening. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from near 16N117W to 10N123W. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from high pressure centered well northwest of the area covers the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades from around 08N to 22N west of the surface trough. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Other than the large swell mentioned above, seas are 6 to 9 ft across the area of fresh to strong trades, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 105W. For the forecast, a cold front will bring fresh to strong winds on either side of it north of 27N and east of 135W later this morning through Sat. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the same area through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, while the large northerly swell mentioned above stretches seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 02N and west of 113W by early Sun, then decaying into early next week until a reinforcing set arrives Mon night through Tue. The area of moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Lewitsky