000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly swell continues to support seas of 8 to 13 ft seas N of 19N E of 138W. This swell event will continue to spread southward through Fri before starting to subside during the evening. However, another swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will follow a new cold front that will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri night into Sat. This new swell is forecast to cover the waters N of 20N and E of 140W before subsiding on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N90W to 02N100W. The ITCZ continues from 02N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 90W and 96W, and from 02N to 08N between W of 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 4 ft are across the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are noted west of Baja California Norte while N to NE winds are across the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in NW swell N of Puerto Chale and 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters S of that location. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are across the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will continue across the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop again in the northern Gulf of California Sat morning through Sun. NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue through Fri night. Another swell event bringing rough seas will affect the Baja California offshore waters Fri night through Sun morning as a new cold front moves across the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 7 ft are noted over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to near 92W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in SW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Mon when winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, briefly increasing to fresh to locally strong speeds Fri night. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh and prevail trough the remainder forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing and an upcoming swell event. Broad surface ridging extending from a 1039 mb high centered NW of the forecast open waters covers the waters north of 14N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5-7 ft primarily in northerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the week, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Large northerly swell across the northern waters producing seas in excess of 12 ft will impact much of the waters north of 20N through Fri. A new set of long period swell will start affecting the northern waters Fri night before subsiding on Sun. $$ Ramos