175 
AXPZ20 KNHC 192121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 00N106W. The ITCZ 
continues from 00N106W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 10N between 120W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds over the Tehuantepec region have diminished below gale
force this afternoon. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains 
in Mexico and lower pressure within the equatorial trough in the 
eastern Pacific continues to support strong to near-gale force N
winds over the area through Mon. Seas are currently peaking near
11 ft, and will gradually continue to subside as winds diminish.
Large seas generated from this event continue to spread well 
away from the Tehuantepec area, impacting the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters, and will spread as far west as 110W 
tonight. Mariners transiting across or in the vicinity of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this and take the 
necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Light to gentle winds prevail west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail.
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters, and 1-3 ft
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force N winds will prevail
over the Tehuantepec region through Mon. Winds and seas will 
gradually continue to subside in the area through the week. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere across the open 
waters off Mexico tonight, increasing modestly beginning on Tue.
Light to gentle NW winds will prevail across much of the Gulf of
California, briefly strengthening to moderate to fresh over the 
northern Gulf by midweek. A new set of NW swell will propagate 
into the waters off Baja California by midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale NE winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, extending downwind to near 92W along with seas of 8 to
11 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where 
seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 ft primarily in long-period S to
SW swell.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE to E winds in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will persist through early next week, with 
rough seas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail in the 
Gulf of Panama through Mon. Swell generated from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will maintain large northerly swell 
over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Mon. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb weakening low pressure center is analyzed near 
29N121.5W. Its associated weakening cold front extends from the
low to 20N124W, then a shearline continues from that point to 
17N140W. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
to its NW is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds west of 
the low, with seas ranging from 10-12 ft. 

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N and W of 125W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to fresh 
trades N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 125W. Seas are 8-10 ft in a
mix of long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 6-8 ft 
primarily in northerly swell.

For the forecast, the low and front will continue weakening 
while moving E. Fresh NE to E trade winds are forecast to persist
over the west-central waters through Mon, with overall little 
change to seas within this part of the area.

$$
ERA